Migration, Environment and Climate Change

The surrounding environment, comprising availability of natural resources, biodiversity, precipitation, temperature patterns and exposure to natural hazards, has always been a key determinant for areas for human settlement and consequently, has also influenced migration flows. The adverse impacts of climate change and environmental degradation have increasingly contributed to migration, and future projections of climate change indicate that this trend will continue.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC)’s recently launched Special Report on 1.5 degrees of Global Warming examines the migration, environment and climate change nexus, building on previous analysis included in IPCC assessment reports. While noting that climate change is only one of the drivers of migration, the report specifically identifies out-migration patterns of agricultural communities as correlated with temperature increase. Similarly, it notes that internal migration in island countries is linked to rates of sea-level rise. This evidence has been acknowledged in global policies, such as the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, which established the Taskforce on Displacement and the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration. While global level policy frameworks have firmly anchored this nexus and called for integrated approaches to address associated challenges, regional and national policy frameworks have yet to fully develop cross-sectoral responses to this nexus.

The Asia-Pacific Context

Asia and the Pacific is home to over 4.3 billion people, covering approximately 60 per cent of the world’s population. The region comprises small island States in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean; archipelagos such as Indonesia and the Philippines; arid countries like Mongolia and the Islamic Republic of Iran; mountainous and landlocked countries spanning the Hindukush Himalayan ranges such as Nepal and Bhutan; and large river basins and deltas of the Yangtze, Mekong, Brahmaputra covering China, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic and Viet Nam.

As a function of its size, population and topographical diversity, the region is highly exposed to climate change and natural hazards. Though difficult to generalize across the Asia-Pacific region, frequently occurring sudden-onset disasters aggravated by climate change such as floods and storms have significant impacts on national GDP as countries incur significant losses and fatalities, particularly when the disasters are at their most intense. Slow-onset processes including sea-level rise, coastal erosion, ocean acidification and droughts along with climatic changes linked to precipitation and temperature patterns also have tangible impacts, though harder to measure.

The effect of climate change and disasters on migration is equally significant. Between 2008 and 2017, more than 198.1 million people were displaced by sudden-onset disasters in Asia and the Pacific – accounting for approximately 81 per cent of all disaster displacement in the world. Over 95 per cent of this displacement occurs due to climate and weather-related sudden-onset disasters such as storms and floods. Countries from the region, such as China, India and the Philippines routinely feature on the list of the countries with the highest disaster displacement in absolute numbers. On the other hand, countries with the highest relative average annual displacement are small islands, including three (Palau, Vanuatu and Tonga) from the Pacific region. Although complex to enumerate, slow-onset processes accelerated by climate change combined with other economic, social and political drivers of human mobility. This results in environmental migration which may occur either preemptively or in response to loss and damage associated with progressively deteriorating environmental conditions, within a country or across national borders.

Climate projections for the subregions of South and Southeast Asia, East Asia and the Pacific are shaped by their respective geographic characteristics. The latest IPCC report identified a range of impacts for the region depending on the degree of temperature rise. This included potential warming of hot extremes in Western and Central Asia and an increase in heavy precipitation patterns across tropical parts of Asia at 1.5 degrees, amounting to flooding at 2 degrees of global warming in South and Southeast Asia. The report noted that these climatic changes would particularly impact crop production, food and water security, increasingly affecting the poor and already vulnerable populations in the region. While projections on sea-level rise are still not accurately defined, there is consensus on the high sensitivity of Pacific Islands to coastal climate change. However, the Pacific is not alone in its exposure to sea-level rise; coastal towns and cities in South and Southeast Asia are also expected to experience related loss and damages, calling for the urgent implementation of appropriate adaptation interventions.

Despite increased research and evidence on the role of climate change impacts, disasters and environmental degradation in driving migration trends, there continues to be a limited understanding and information to map and predict scenarios of environmental migration in different geographic regions across Asia-Pacific. As the recent IPCC report notes, there needs to be increased understanding of how degrees of global warming and slow-onset processes affect migration patterns particularly in small islands, as well as the risks and benefits of migration and relocation as a climate change adaptation strategy. An improved evidence base on the MECC nexus in the Asia–Pacific region will enable the development of appropriate strategies to ensure that any challenges are adequately addressed. Similarly at the policy level, there has been growing acknowledgment and integration of the MECC nexus in relevant national policies related to climate change and disaster risk reduction, as evidenced by the recent National Adaptation Plan launched by the Government of Fiji that calls for mainstreaming mobility into climate change adaptation planning. As migration can be both a direct and indirect consequence of climate change impacts, and also has an impact on how communities can adapt to climate change, national, sectoral and local policies and planning need to consider integrating the MECC nexus to ensure a coherent and consistent approach across levels of government and different ministries. To move towards this objective, institutional capacity development should be supported.

As identified by the IPCC in their fifth Assessment Report, ‘the climate system may be global in extent, but its manifestations… are regional or local in their occurrence, character and implications.’ Similarly, environmental migration trends tend to be regionally specific, shaped by regional geography, migration frameworks and climate change impacts. In order to ensure that the nexus of migration, environment and climate change, particularly as it relates to cross-border migration and influences regional migration trends, is addressed through multi-country partnerships, the Asia–Pacific region needs to focus on strengthening regional and subregional cooperation and coordination either through existing or new regional and subregional processes. The Pacific region has already demonstrated that this is an issue of regional importance, through acknowledgment in policy frameworks such as the Framework on Resilient Development in the Pacific and declarations by Pacific Leaders, but forums for discussion need to be fostered to encourage meaningful participation and outcomes that will support climate change affected communities. On the other hand, other subregions in the Asia-Pacific still need to make strides to achieve a consensus or acknowledge the interconnectedness of migration and environment, which would indicate that initial discussions of this issue in relevant regional fora would be an adequate starting point.

Global funding for climate change indicates that there is still an imbalance of funding towards climate change mitigation as opposed to climate change adaptation initiatives, although from this, the Asia-Pacific region does achieve a significant share of adaptation funding. However, this funding does not necessarily aim to address or reduce the risk of forced migration in the context of sudden or slow-onset disasters or leverage the role that migration can play in supporting climate change adaptation. Ensuring that affected communities – including those living in areas exposed to sudden-onset hazards, slow-onset processes and affected by climatic variability, and host communities in cases of relocation and displacement–are supported by appropriate climate change adaptation programmes and social safety nets will be a critical area of work in the region.